The Daily Mortgage Advisor

Mortgage markets improved last week on a bevy of economic and geopolitical news. Conforming mortgage rates in Orange County improved, falling to their lowest levels of 2011.

It’s a welcome development for home buyers and rate shoppers nationwide. Mortgage rates were expected to rise throughout most of this year.

There were four big stories that contributed to falling rates last week.

The first was the news that Osama bin Laden was killed. The news was announced over the weekend, and by the time markets opened Monday morning, the price of oil was already falling. Falling oil prices reduce inflationary pressures on the economy and because inflation contributes to rising mortgage rates, the absence of inflation helps them to fall.

This news carried markets to Thursday morning. That’s when the Department of Labor announced that Initial Jobless Claims had suddenly and unexpectedly surged to an 8-month high. Last week’s report featured the biggest one-week jump in claims in more than 2 years.

This, too, pushed mortgage rates lower, casting doubt on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Then, Friday morning, those doubts were cast aside. When the government released its Non-Farm Payrolls report for April, it showed job creation topping 200,000 for the third straight month. We would have expected mortgage rates to rise on news like this, but they didn’t.

Rates fell instead — mostly because the strength of the U.S. jobs report rendered mortgage-backed bonds more attractive to global investors.

The last story, though, is the one worth watching long-term.

Late-Friday, in response to its growing debt issues, it was reported that Greece may withdraw from the Eurozone. An outcome such as this is unlikely, however, the possibility was enough to spark a flight-to-quality that benefited U.S. mortgage rates. Conforming and FHA rates ended Friday lower, reaching their best levels since December.

This week, there isn’t much economic news set for release so the above stories will continue to influence markets and rates. Geopolitics can change quickly, though, so if you’re floating a mortgage rate and waiting for the bottom, don’t wait too long. Markets can reverse in a snap.

If you see a rate you like, the safest move is to lock it.

Among the most challenging aspects of shopping for a mortgage is how rates change constantly. It’s hard to pin them down.

For example, in 2011, mortgage rates have expired every 3-and-a-half hours, on average. That’s fast.

There’s two main catalysts for changing mortgage rates.

The first can be grouped as ”scheduled events”; the planned release of market data which includes the Existing Home Sales report, or a scheduled government statement such as when the Federal Open Market Committee meets. When the outcomes of these event-types either exceed, or fall short, of Wall Street’s expectations, mortgage markets react.

Home buyers and rate shoppers in Orange County realize this as higher (or lower) mortgage rates.

Then there’s the other type of catalyst — the “unscheduled event”.

Unscheduled events take many forms and are often called “surprise developments”. The Federal Reserve’s plan to inject $750 billion into mortgage markets in 2009 was one such surprise. Most geopolitical events fall into this category, too. 

Unscheduled events are often unsettling to Wall Street because investors don’t have specific contingency plans for them like they would if, say, this month’s jobs report comes back exceedingly strong. For example, investors didn’t expect North Korea to fire missiles over Japan in 2008, nor did they expect a volcano to erupt in Iceland last spring.

When unscheduled, unexpected events occur, the market’s first — and natural — reaction is to scramble to make sense of it. Mortgage rates get jostled as a result and can take days to settle back to normal.

We’re experiencing an “unexpected event” right now.

In response to Sunday’s evening’s presidential address, markets are now upended. The dollar is strengthening, oil prices are falling, and stock markets are rising. Each of these items are altering mortgage rates across California. 

Even today, markets remain unsettled.

Therefore, if you’re shopping for a mortgage rate, keep one eye on the news and the other on the rate-lock trigger. During periods of unexpected activity, mortgage rates can change quickly so be ready to shop, and be ready to lock.

Mortgage markets wait for no one.

Mortgage markets improved last week overall. Bigger concerns for Eurozone debt combined with lesser concerns for domestic inflation to push U.S. mortgage rates lower.

Last week marked the 3rd consecutive week through which conforming mortgage rates dropped, the longest such streak since February.

Mortgage rates in Orange County are now scraping their lowest levels of the year.

A few interesting stories developed last week.

First, the Federal Open Market Committee met and voted to hold the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250. In its post-meeting press release, the FOMC said that inflation has been “pushed up” in recent months, but that believes, long-term, that inflation will moderate.

This message pleased the inflation-sensitive bond markets, the place where mortgage rates are made. Bond prices rose in response, and mortgage rates fell.

Then, because markets believe Greece can’t meet its current debt obligations without restructure, a bout of safe haven buying began, benefiting domestic mortgage-backed bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates.

It’s a terrific example of how world events can change mortgage rates for buyers and would-be refinancing households across California.

This week, mortgage rates will take their cues from the Greece story as it continues to develop, and from Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. The jobs report is always a potential market-mover.

Economists expect to see 196,000 jobs added in the economy for April. If the actual number is larger-than-expected, look for mortgage rates to rise on better prospects for the U.S. economy. If the number falls short, look for rates to drop.

With last month’s mortgage rate rally, this week marks a good time to lock a rate. Based on current market fundamentals, it appears that there’s much more room for rates to rise than to fall. This may be as low as rates get all year.

Mortgage markets improved slightly through last week’s holiday-shortened trading sessions. Better-than-expected housing data led mortgage rates higher Tuesday and Wednesday, but rates retreated Thursday morning in advance of Good Friday.

Markets were closed Thursday afternoon and Friday. They re-open this morning.

Conforming mortgage rates in California ended last week unchanged overall. It’s a strange outcome considering that Standard & Poor’s issued a downgrade on U.S. debt Monday.

In most instances, a debt downgrade would lead investors away from a particular group of securities — in this case, a group that includes mortgage-backed bonds. However, Wall Street reacted in the opposite.

When S&P issued its opinion, however, mortgage bonds rallied.

Some say this is because the downgrade will force Congress to address a rising debt-load; others think a downgrade slows growth which, in turn, slows down inflation. Both scenarios are considered a positive for mortgage bonds. Hence, mortgage rates fell.

This week, momentum could reverse. In addition to a slew of housing and economic data including New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, and Consumer Confidence data, the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting for the third time this year. And this month, the FOMC is meeting a little differently.

Usually, when the FOMC gets together, it adjourns and releases a press statement to the markets at 2:15 PM ET. This month, though, the FOMC will release its statement at 12:30 PM ET, and then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press briefing at 2:15 PM ET to address the aforementioned statement. He’s expected to add growth forecasts to the official FOMC release, among other items.

Whenever the FOMC meets, mortgage rates can be volatile. This week, with the new press briefing format, that volatility is even more likely.

If you’re floating a mortgage rate or wondering whether to lock, mortgage rates will be at their “calmest” levels of the week Monday and Tuesday. Once Wednesday hits, and the FOMC statements begin, expect for rates to change.

Mortgage markets improved last week, buoyed by two days of out-sized gains. Mortgage rates bounced off their 8-week highs on much weaker-than-expected inflation data, and debt concerns abroad.

It’s an abrupt change in mortgage rate momentum.

Since the Federal Reserve’s March 2011 meeting, in which the Fed said rising energy costs are “putting upward pressure on inflation“, inflation chatter has figured big for Orange County  mortgage rates. With each tick higher in gas prices; in every conversation on U.S. debt load; as fruits and vegetables get more expensive at the supermarket, Wall Street’s fears of inflation have grown, and rate shoppers have suffered.

The connection between inflation and mortgage rates is straight-forward. Inflation is the devaluation of the U.S. dollar — the currency in which mortgage bonds are denominated. As the dollar loses values, so do mortgage bonds, therefore, leading mortgage rates to rise, inevitably.

Leading up to last week, concerns peaked and rates did, too. And then, a strange thing happened. The government’s March inflation report showed inflation well under control.

The results surprised Wall Street and the trades that had previously served to pump rate up, last week, ran in reverse.

The biggest gains were made Friday.

This week, inflation takes back-seat to housing data. There’s a lot of it coming.

• Monday : Homebuilder Confidence Index
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits
• Wednesday : Existing Home Sales
• Thursday : Housing Market Index

There’s no data due Friday with markets closed for Good Friday.

This is a holiday-shortened week so expect low trading volume to render rates more erratic than typical. If you’re not yet locked in to a mortgage rate with your lender, consider doing it this week.

Mortgage markets worsened last week as energy costs remained high, and jobs data looked strong. The safe haven buying that characterized the March mortgage market has subsided.

it’s driving mortgage rates higher across California.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates rolled back 8 weeks worth of improvements last week and are now back to mid-February levels. The rise in rates is hurting refinance activity and home affordability.

The biggest story from last week figures to carry forward into this one — the Federal Reserve’s take on inflation.

In the minutes from its March meeting, the FOMC was shown to have discussed the possibility of raising the Fed Funds Rate ahead of schedule, and to be watching near-inflation closely. Both developments are in response to a growing economy with rising price pressures.

Mortgage rate shoppers should take note.

Inflation is a mortgage-rate killer. When inflation is present in the economy, all things equal, mortgage rates rise. Sometimes by a lot. And, usually, just the expectation of inflation is all it takes to make mortgage rates jump.

That’s what we saw last week.

This week, keep a close watch on new inflation-related data set for release. This includes Tuesday’s Retail Sales data, Wednesday’s Producer Price Index, and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index. Each release can potentially move mortgage rates although, if recent trends are an indication, expect for rates to rise.

Mortgage rates in Orange County remain historically low. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, consider locking as soon as you can.

Which is better — a fixed-rate mortgage or an adjustable-rate mortgage? It’s a common question among home buyers and refinancing households in California.

The answer? It depends. 

Fixed-rate mortgages give the certainty of a known, unchanging principal + interest payment for the life of the loan. This can help you with budget-setting and financial planning. Some homeowners say fixed-rate loans they offer “peace of mind”.

Adjustable-rate mortgages do not.

After a pre-determined, introductory number of years, the initial interest rate on the note — sometimes called a “teaser rate” — moves up or down, depending on the existing market conditions. It then adjust again every 6 or 12 months thereafter until the loan is paid in full.

ARMs can adjust higher or lower so they are necessarily unpredictable long-term. However, if you can be comfortable with uncertainty like that, you’re often rewarded with a very low initial interest rate — much lower than a comparable fixed rate loan, anyway.

Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey highlights this point.

The interest rate gap between fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable-rate mortgages is growing. It peaked 2 weeks ago, but remains huge at 1.16 percentage points.

On a $200,000 home loan, this 1.16 FRM/ARM spread yields a monthly principal + interest payment difference of $136, or $8,160 over 5 years, the typical initial teaser rate period.

Savings like that can be compelling and may push you toward an adjustable rate loan.

You might also consider a 5-year ARM over a fixed-rate loan if any of these scenarios apply:

1. You’re buying a new home with the intent to sell it within 5 years
2. You’re currently financed with a 30-year fixed mortgage and have plans to sell the home within 5 years
3. You’re interested in low payments, and are comfortable with longer-term payment uncertainty

Furthermore, homeowners whose existing ARMs are due for adjustment might want to refinance into a brand new ARM, if only to push the teaser rate period farther into the future.

Before choosing ARM over fixed, though, make sure you speak with your loan officer about how adjustable rate mortgages work, and their near- and long-term risks. The payment savings may be tempting, but with an ARM, the payments are never permanent.

In a volatile week of trading, mortgage markets closed unchanged last week. Despite economic data proving stronger-than-expected — a situation that tends to lead mortgage rates higher — concern for persistently high oil prices tempered Wall Street’s excitement and mortgage rates stayed steady.

That’s not to say rates weren’t volatile, however. From day-to-day, mortgage rates showed huge variance last week and several lenders issued five separate rate sheets Friday.

The 12-month average is slightly less than two per day.

Expect the volatility to continue into this week, too. With little economic data due for release, mortgage rates should move on momentum. This would be good news for rate shoppers and home buyers throughout California because mortgage rates ended last week on a downswing.

It’s all because of the March jobs report.

The jobs report is important to the economy because as the number of working Americans grows, so does total earned wages nationwide. In theory, this leads to higher levels of consumer spending, and to larger government tax receipts.

It starts a cycle in which businesses and governments additional workers and the cycle continues.

The U.S. economy added jobs in March for the sixth straight month.

Mortgage rates are 0.69% higher today as compared to their early-November 2010 lows. The jump has added 14 percent to the 30-year, long-term cost of homeownership in Orange County. However, as compared to history, rates remain low.

If you’re currently shopping for a mortgage, talk to your loan officer about today’s market and its risks. Rates may not rise this week, but they’re poised to surge along with the economy. Consider locking in today.

Mortgage markets worsened last week as nuclear meltdown concerns eased across Japan, and the war within Libya moved closer to a potential finish.

Wall Street voted with its dollars, and a return to risk-taking emerged. “Safe haven” buying softened last week and, as a result, conforming mortgage rates in California made their biggest 1-week spike since late-January.

Mortgage rates remain historically low, but well above their November 2010 lows.

This week, rates could run higher again. Friday’s jobs report is a major story and it will affect mortgage rates in Orange County and across the country. Jobs are a key component of the nation’s economic recovery, and as the economy has improved, mortgage rates have tended to rise.

Economists expect that 190,000 jobs were created in March. If they’re correct, it will raise the 12-month tally to 1.3 million net new jobs created nationwide. This is still less than the 2 million jobs lost in the 12 months prior, but it’s a positive step that suggests sustained growth.

A positive net new jobs figure for March would mark the first time since June 2007 that jobs growth was net positive 6 months in a row. If March’s final figures are better than expected, expected mortgage rates to rise. If the figures are less, look for rates to fall.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay sub-9.0 percent, too.

Other news that could change rates this week include Monday’s Pending Home Sales report, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence data, and any one of the 4 speeches from members of the Fed. In general, data and/or rhetoric that suggest more growth in 2011 will cause mortgage rates to rise.

If you are still floating a mortgage rate and have yet to lock one in, this week may represent your last chance for low rates. Good news about the economy will put pressure on mortgage rates to rise.

It’s a great time for Orange County buyers and homeowners to look at the 15-year fixed rate mortgage.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the relative “discount” of a 15-year fixed rate loan as compared to a comparable 30-year product is the largest in recorded history. The interest rate spread between the two benchmark products is now 0.77%, nearly double the recent, 5-year average of 0.44%.

Despite its lower rates, however, homeowners that opt for a 15-year fixed mortgage should be prepared for higher monthly payments. This is because the principal balance of a 15-year fixed is repaid in half as many years as with a 30-year amortizing product.

The payment increase is 41% higher at today’s rates. If you can manage that, though, you’ll reap dramatic interest payments savings over time. For each $100,000 borrowed at today’s market interest rates, your mortgage interest costs on a conforming 15-year term mortgage will be lower by $56,000 versus an identically-structured 30-year term. The more you borrow, the more you save.

That said, not everyone should use the 15-year product.

One reason you may want to avoid 15-year products is because the higher payments may lead to financial stress. Unless your monthly income far exceeds your monthly debts, choosing a 30-year product may feel safer for you.

Another reason is that, with less mortgage interest paid, 15-year mortgages don’t allow for as many mortgage interest tax deductions. This can have tax implications to you each year. Or, maybe you prefer to have your home leveraged, investing “spare dollars” in stocks and bonds.

These are all legitimate cases to stick with a 30-year term, but if you’ve ever explored the idea of using a 15-year fixed rate mortgage for your home, today, the math is in your favor. Talk to your loan officer before the rates start rising.